India vs China Border tension ! Debate guys
China has been exerting itself on Indian borders in multiple ways, one by setting up strategic camps, laying first class roads, diverting the Brahmaputra waters, building up substantial army presence with the sole objective of snatching away portions of North East from Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, AP and Assam. Once they have fortified their presence all over they would definitely like to pick up a skirmish according to me. The balance of trade is in their favour and we are obligated. Under the current scenario, the only option remaining for India according to newsreport is go for massive land army recruitment, may 5 lakhs in number, with 1 lakh permanent and 4 lakhs temporary personnel trained to invade the enemies territory. Chinese have betrayed us once in 1962, and i believe they will do it once again. Debate guys
India cannot afford a war. All the more reason we should bear our teeth and have complete military presence with water+ Road structure being done. Some misunderstand peace for being weak. Even a gun without a loaded barrel intimidates enemies. If our troops cannot stand, scorch Earth policy is the best thing to do under the circumstances. Too much of our land has gone in dispute. Just look at India's border in google analytics, our country looks like an overgrown pea pod!!If that money wasn't wasted on CWG, it could have been put to good use.
India is weak ? War is inadvisable ? Says who ?
Just a small lesson in history for you folks. Chinese have been beaten repeatedly by Indians in numerous conflicts. First one that I know of is when a small army of Maharaja Gulab Singh ruler of small Dogra kingdom of Jammu, commanded his General Zorawar Singh on a conquest of northern territories. The Dogras not only defeated armies of all Kingdoms in what is now J&K (undivided) but also the comined armies of Tibet and China. Their conquest area extended upto Mansarovar and Kailash Parvat This is the surrender document signed by Chinese in 1841:
The Treaty of Chushul“On this auspicious occasion, the second day of the month Asuj in the year 1899 we —- the officers of Lhasa, viz. firstly, Kalon Sukanwala, and secondly Bakshi Sapju, commander of the forces of the Empire of China, on the one hand, and Dewan Hari Chand and Wazir Ratnu, on behalf of Raja Gulab Singh, on the other —- agree together and swear before God that the friendship between Raja Gulab Singh and the Emperor of China and Lama Guru Sahib Lassawala will be kept and observed till eternity; for the traffic in shawl, pasham, and tea. We will observe our pledge to God, Gayatri, and Pasi. Wazir Mian Khusal Chu is witness.”
Apart from 1962 which we lost due to our own mistakes rather than Chinese superiority, India gave China a real bloody nose in ::SUPRISE:: in 1965 and 1987. Don't beleive me ? Read about "Chola incident" and "Nathu La Incident". China is nothing but obnoxious, coward loud moth bully. Once India stopped following coward dhimmi policies and showed a will to fight back, Chinese escaped with their tails between their legs.
Although I'm no war monger, I don't beleive what most people think about Indian inferiority with respect to China. India has enough power to fight China. We only need will to use that power.
Infact I had written one long story, more like a war scenario of (70 thousand words) on my blog and site involving India in conflict with China and Pakistan. although story was fictional, places and military capability were as accurate as possible. Maybe some of you will find it interesting
War is always the last resort. At the end of the day we're all humans.Besides, in this day of age, war is very expensive. Just arm the borders enough that the Chinese and Pakistan would think a lot before taking another step. As long as they are intimidated enough to keep their hands in their own land, its all good. No bloodshed, no loss- its all good. When they say you need weapons to maintain, this is what they really mean.
I was surprised that Imran Khan too is speaking in the same language playing to the galleries in Pakistan, touching upon Kashmir. Kashmir has been legitimately ceded to India by the Maharaja of Kashmir on the eve of invastion from tribals from Pakistan. Kashmir was included in the Constitution of India with special provisions.
I;m not under stimating china either. I'm just saying that acting like a coward in face of repeated bullying by China and Pakisatan, like you guys are suggesting is not the answer. Upu have to push back these bullies
Threat of nuclear war is much more exaggerated than it really is. Warheads, weapons, strategy etc all have changed for better, as much as it is possible. Nucear armageddon of Cold War is nearly impossible now, least of all in our scenario. It's difficult to explain all of these concepts and doctrines in layman terms.
I'm no expert either, but I can say with some conviction that nuclear war is not the final armageddon. sure both parties will take losses, but that's what happens in a war. Conventional weapons can cause same amount of destruction and misery as nuclear. Just read up on WW II
My name is Jaidev, not Jaideo.
Conventional weapons can cause same amount of destruction and misery as nuclear.
That doesn't sound correct. Just 2 nuclear bombs in WWII changed the course for Japan. We have abosolutely no idea of the havoc that can be created by a nuclear war in todays world. Its all conjectures, but if you consider a war with bombs effectively 1000 times more powerful than the bombs dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, you can get a very sorry picture of the aftermath of such an event. Any city getting a hit will be completely annihilated. More will perish due to the nuclear cloud that will travel for miles around. If nuclear weapons are used in a war between 2 neighboring countries, it should be a lose-lose situation.
Come to think of it, probably will help in bringing down the world population :)
Militarily we some how we are capable to thwart the misadventure of China but politically we are a cowrdice Nation. Having a nonalingment view is a cowrdice view like .
This is my essay topic too :P BTW I am looking at their relations from realist and Complex interdependence perspective or simply put- China needs us for trade, change in biased economic regimes and environment issues.These areas are an important lot and China can't simply risk losing them by fighting war.War is costlier than benefits of cooperation.China is doing all this to assert itself like any power would, India aint far behind.If we catch up (IF used because of the negative vibes UPA II is gvng wid regards to growth) we would also assert ourselves.The gains China make with this aggressive Foreign policy will be minor and more symbolic and China is likely to use them for arm twisting us.We are no saints.If china patao-es our south asian neighbours, dnt we go to SE asia to skirt China?? Hvnt we warmed upto Japan and US to contain China? Right now China has power but not absolute power,its not a hegemon :D My calculation says that How relations play between the two depends on How better India does economically,If we catch up and may be out perform, we are gona be worse then China as a realist and if we don't den our FP makers wud have a tough time dealing with China.
Pramod bhai, kum se kum ek aadmi ka attention thoda controversial topic se hatana hai, is forum me aisa jumke bais hone do, aap toh ishara samaj gaye na
Agree with most points of above two posts, except for some minor details.
The key thing about China's hyped 3 Trillion reserves is it's in US DOLLARS. China can't dare threaten America with any punitive action without it's own economy going down the drain. US will be hurt but it can recover. China with it's export oriented economy will suffer bankruptcy that it'll find hard o recover from. There are dozens of competitors to China's mass manufacturing strategy, S Korea, Philipenes, Malaysia, Mexico, India, Vietnam, some central Asian Republics, Brazil,...list is quite long
Regarding Monica's point about Indian ties with US, Japan I'd like to point out that these are more economic in nature than strategic. Both of these countries have much bigger trade relations with China, but you can't assume that they are forming an anti-India alliance, can you ?
What is more troubling to China is Indian proximity with common neighbours island nations in IOR and South China, namely Myanmar, Nepal, Vietnam. Chinese due to their belligerent nature view increasing Indian influence as a big threat. And if you follow the event timelines, India has started improving ties with these countris only now after decades of neglect. We are still decades behind China, not only here but also in Africa and Central Asia
For China, India is a upstart competitor which needs to be taught a lesson. They don't like to acknowledge that we can suprass them
If a nobody like Pakistan can benefit from Indo-China rivalry than India gets to benefit much from US-China equation.Its not just economic.US has a realist foreign policy, it trades products and services under the guise of increasing power.US which used to preach us on NPT gave us nuke deal itself.In the triangular equation of India-China-US.The more the two of them fight , the more the one left out would benefit.India and China both understand this and this is why they don't show much activism at BRICS but truth is India is more on the US side- liberal democratic model and China is communist.Now either China would try to impose communist values when it gets such chance and would risk finding every other nation on the other side or China would face troubles from within as an increasingly affulent middle class seeks equally rewarding political voice.
I seen news on one TV Channel that china preparing to attack like a Kargil. China also looking for capture Kargil hill and hence china preparing for such a war against india....can we ready for that ?
From Vadgam (BK)
I hope we can barter a deal of giving up Bangladesh to Pakistan which will keep them busy quelling the rebellion over there. I won t be surprised that China may invade Bangladesh to prove their superiority over India. It would be poetic justice of sorts if Bangladesh is handed back to Pakistan. It will at least divert their attention from Kashmir.
Pramod Bhai i understand the predicament, but it is true that Bangladesh attained freedom because of India, now they are almost treating us enemies with their attitude. It is better to recant and support for unification with Pak if it can win us some brownie points.
Let them get Bangladesh and see the trouble for Pakistan, they would be hard pressed to maintain their suzereignty over the territory. It will keep them busy forever
I am bit surprised, do you guys really think there can be a full blown war between india and china?. Both are nuclear nations with capabilites to launch missiles at the heart of the enemy nation. Both have one of the largest armies in the world with strong air force and navy. It will be a world war 3 kind of situtation. UN will never allow this.
Times have changed wars are no longer fought for pride, self estime or to prove ones superiority. All the recent wars have been fought due to economic reasons. The trade realtions between india and china have increased rapidly in recent years. Both the countries are important to one another. i dont think india or china can risk this trade realtions due to some border problems.
War is always the last resort. "The art of war" by sun zu also states that great wars are always won by minimum actual figthing. The real victory is not the maximum destruction of the enemy but maximum gains for oneself's country with minimum actual fighting.
Mayur, We are not war mongering but China seems to be itching for one maybe to test their army, secondly dispose off outdated weapons, thirdly to quell semblence of internal rebellion. Maybe they will have a pact not to fire any nuclear missiles against each other. China has been gunning for Sikkim and AP for a long time
I'm not a bit suprised by your naievty.
First of all, UN can't do diddly squat. It couldn't stop wars in Iraq, Kosovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan. It's just a small cat which can sharpen it's claws on banana republics like those in Africa. Talk of UN intervention in India China conflict is laughable.
Even for a comparatively simple issue, nobody could do anything when China, North Korea, Pakistan traded in nukes and missiles
2nd, you seem to forget Kargil war which happened only a year after both India and Pakistan demonstrated their nuclear capability. So you can rest your theory of nuclear weapons being a detternt too.
Your point of nature of war is partially correct if one assumes that trade in Indo-China equation is more important for China then their goal of global supermacy. India is the biggest obstacle for them. As Umesh mentioned in his post
According to me the Chinese economy is bursting at its seams and economists are predicting a bubble burst. How are they going to create consumption unless they risk partial destruction ? Plus they have accumulated all outdated weapons which have to be used and destroyed in a war. It is more like China is itching for a war rather than India
China has quite a few reasons to start a conflict with India. They've settled almost all of their border disputes except with India and show no inclination of doing so either.If a political movement against Chinese ruling elite starts, starting a conflict just to divert the attention will be quite tempting solution for them.
Nice to meet the military stratergic expert on indiblogger. If you are selected on any important strategic position in india then god help us.
Though we all know UN can be partial sometimes, you can't say that they have done nothing to stop wars in the recent years. Iraq and Afgahnisthan were different issues.
Afghanisthan :- USA didnt actually went in war with the nation of afghanisthan, it was war against Taliban and other terrorist groups. USA was not alone britain, germany, italy, france too actively participated in it even the afghanisthan military was helping. And for your info NATO sent the most number of soldiers for the war so you can infer that UN was supporting the war. The issue in afghanisthan were very grave there were rumours of taliban trying to obtain nuclear weapons and then 9/11 happened. No country would keep quiet when they such terrorist threats.
IRAQ:- There was global fear that iraq was in position of nuclear weapons. UN tried to check whether iraq qas in possestion of weapons of mass destruction, but there was no coperation by the saddam hussein regime. There was internal unrest due to the cruel dictatorship of saddam hussein. So measures where taken against the dictatorship. Here too USA was not alone britain and other countries also participated.
Nobody can point fingers at each others without concrete proof. UN can't just go accusing everybody under minor suspisions.
Kargil was rather a minor issue you can't go deploying nukes because some 200-300 soldiers crossed the LOC. And please read posts properly before babbling about something. I said there can't be a full blown war between india and china. I never said there can't be some minor clashes between the 2 nations in the border regions.
I seriously don't think china has ambitions to become global ruler or anything. Yes economic super power that they are aiming for and i am sure they will achieve it in less than 2 decades. China is taking serious stance on the border matters because they don't want to project themselves as weak. I also don't think there is any major unrest china to divert the public's attention by starting war. Hu Jintuo is one of best leaders china has ever had, i wish our PM would be like him who could take firm decisions and stand by them no matter what.
Regarding nuclear deal, devil lies in the details. US has not done India any favour. It's just a way for them to get a share of very lucrative business. This deal also imposes so many restrictions on India's own nuclear program and provides a very easy way for them to spy on us
One other point worth considering is the bill was passed by bare majority by a Republican president, current govt is headed by Democrats which opposed the deal tooth and nail.
Going by recent events I'm not very hopeful that UPA govt with it's slavish "appeasing-white-master" mentality has not sold off Indian interests just for White approval and personal benefit.
We can never underestimate Chinese, we should be prepared for an all out war as such, hopefully without triggering Nuclear weapons. Let us hope the Chinese leaders realise that popular uprising like in Libya, Syria, Egypt etc would definitely inspire majority to carry out a revolution to throw out the old order in China. The day when old order is threatened they would be ready to unleash war with India. This is the real danger.
@umesh - China will never fight us directly. They will fire at us from Pakistan's shoulder like Arjuna fired at Bhishma hiding behind Sikandi. China is not stupid to fight a large scale conventional war with India. It would be too costly. No country does it these days. Picking on little nations with technological inferiority like Afghanistan and Iraq is one thing. Taking one a country of similar size is a different ball game. US would not dare any adventures with Russia. Chinese strategy is all about weakening India internally and splitting it into multiple small countries whose rulers China can control.
Taiwanese are fed up with their corrupt government and are inclined to join China. Thats what I got by speaking to a few Taiwanese people. And Viatnemese these days want to go more the way of South Korea and Asean countries and seek development rather than seeking fights with powerful neighbours.
^^ There are those who say the opposite. Most of them work for PC hardware manufacturers.
I agree with your theory that Pakistan and China are itching for an all out war with India. All logic points out to the fact that Pakistan is now in doldrums because of alienation from US aid. Secondly Chinese economy which was growing rapidly because of exports is finding itself in a jam. Further they have territorial ambition too. Silently to keep up the communism bogey they are recruiting more and more military personnel which comes cheap considering the excess manpower. The solution for both these countries if they don t want a war than :
China should abolish one child policy and be liberal on second child, one girl and one boy to maintain sex ratio. This will ensure domestic consumption, it is as simple as that.
Pakistan should give up Kashmir and concentrate on rapid economic development.
The recent churing of events in giving MFN status to India for trading means that the Pakistanis have realised the importance of trade, maybe they would like to trade with their Muslim brothers in India. So be it.
@Umesh - Wishful thinking. While you are about it, you might as well our leaders implement a strong Lok Pal bill, voluntarily declare all their ill appropriated assets and turn themselves in.
I had written a long post which somehow went missing. Mayur: Lets talk about UN first. Didn't US attack Iraq against the UN mandate ? What power does UN have if it couldn't confirm whether a weak unpopular dictator in a bankrupt country had nuclear weapons or not ? If trading in nuclear weapons, missiles is something which UN can't bother investigating, then why does world have so many anti-proliferation treaties ? What's the point about keeping North Korea under sanctions ? Chna and Pakistan had been violating all interntional laws openly. It wasn't even a secret. Why didn't UN sanction these two the same way ? UN is hardly of any relevance in our case. It's good for weak banana republics onlyYou call Kargil a minor conflict with 200-300 men crossing over borer. I think I'm not going to respond to your posts on this topic from now on. For starters, India lost more than that number of men in that war. Paki dead were 4-5 times that. Their whole JAKLI was wiped out in tha conflict. Their aim in starting that conflict was quite the same as Chinese, grabbing territory with humiliating India as an added bonus.Localised conflicts can stay localised only under special conditions. I had posted about 2 in my previous post so you can't accuse me of misinterpreting your post. China does have numerous internal conflicts but the news is mostly suppressed. Most of the time, rest of the world sees only what CPC allows. Perhaps you have heard of Tibetan monks committing self immolation last month and news of serious unrest and bombings in Uighur provinces. Regarding their global economic ambitions, you are again not quite well informed. Try reading Chinese articles for starters and analyze how much money and they are pumping in to their military. They have been quite vocal about their military ambitions, plans to dominate IOR, South China region and sea routes. 100s of articles written by Chinese for you to reaad.--
I had written a long post which somehow went missing.
Mayur: Lets talk about UN first. Didn't US attack Iraq against the UN mandate ? What power does UN have if it couldn't confirm whether a weak unpopular dictator in a bankrupt country had nuclear weapons or not ?
If trading in nuclear weapons, missiles is something which UN can't bother investigating, then why does world have so many anti-proliferation treaties ? What's the point about keeping North Korea under sanctions ? Chna and Pakistan had been violating all interntional laws openly. It wasn't even a secret. Why didn't UN sanction these two the same way ? UN is hardly of any relevance in our case. It's good for weak banana republics only
You call Kargil a minor conflict with 200-300 men crossing over borer. I think I'm not going to respond to your posts on this topic from now on. For starters, India lost more than that number of men in that war. Paki dead were 4-5 times that. Their whole JAKLI was wiped out in tha conflict. Their aim in starting that conflict was quite the same as Chinese, grabbing territory with humiliating India as an added bonus.Localised conflicts can stay localised only under special conditions. I had posted about 2 in my previous post so you can't accuse me of misinterpreting your post.
China does have numerous internal conflicts but the news is mostly suppressed. Most of the time, rest of the world sees only what CPC allows. Perhaps you have heard of Tibetan monks committing self immolation last month and news of serious unrest and bombings in Uighur provinces.
Regarding their global economic ambitions, you are again not quite well informed. Try reading Chinese articles for starters and analyze how much money and they are pumping in to their military. They have been quite vocal about their military ambitions, plans to dominate IOR, South China region and sea routes. 100s of articles written by Chinese for you to reaad.--
Taiwan's current govt is not that opposed to China as the previous one. Even then, any chance of merger is a very remote possibilty. People are always fed up of govts world over. Even CPC is quite corrupt and power hungry
Vietnam is only one of the countries which CHina has a dspute over Spartly Islands and mining rights. Why did China threw such tantrums when Indian ships visited Vietnam ? Sure no sane country wants war but Vietnam amongst other countries don't like Chinese hegemony too much
Yes Jaidev, I agree with most of your points. The Chinese are supressing internal rebellion with iron fist. Secondly i strongly feel their economic bubble is bursting with over production and less consumption and finally their army has never been tested with their weaponary for a long long time.
If the Chinese leaders are serious about tacking the economic problem they have to abolish the single child theory for at least 5 years. It would take care of the economic problem.
Coming to resentment among the public they need to be open about developments around the world by opening up News channels such BBC and CNN with chinese sub titles.
Finally the resolution for army being junked let them be involved in clean up of terrorists in Afghanistan & Pakistan, if possible take them over for a decade occupying the place of US as soon as they vacate Afghanistan.
GUYS let us challenge the CHINGS to take over Afghanistan and Pakistan and bring a semblence of peace and harmony. Let US and Russia accept their failure to bring about change in these pockets. Don t you think that it will keep CHINGS busy
They won't even dream of it. Islamic terrorism is a problem created by US and China to limit communist influence in Afgahnistan and keep India under control respectively. So obviously they won't want to clean it unless jehad turns back and bites China the way it did US. Right now main stream Jehadis are all Pakistan controlled and do not show any sympathy to the Uighur cause. So this is fine with the Chinese. Why will thye shoot themeselves in the foot by curbing that. Right now Jehadis are wasting resources of both their rivals - India and US.